2025 NBA Draft: Ace Bailey Preseason Scouting Report
Rutgers freshman Ace Bailey making his college debut tonight, Nov. 15. He was no. 4 on my first 2025 NBA Draft big board.
Birthday: August 13, 2006
Team: Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Measurements:
Note, Nov. 15 at 5 PM ET: Making his college debut tonight. Minor hip injury kept him out of Rutgers' first two games. Game status was treated as day-to-day.
Offense:
Incredibly tough shotmaker off the dribble listed at 6-foot-10 (probably more around 6-foot-9, in my opinion). Has creativity and touch, plus a nearly unblockable high release point.
Body control as a jump shooter is excellent. Does a great job squaring his body to the basket, even from difficult angles and pull-up points.
Lower body can flail around and mechanics aren’t textbook, but I don’t really mind. The shot goes in, from different spots, various contexts and predicaments, etc. Makes some ridiculous attempts, but he’s so good that this should probably translate.
Shot diet features a lot of extremely difficult pull-ups, mostly from the midrange but also from three.
Doesn’t care if a defender is in his face. This is for better or worse in his space creation process. Not that elastic off the dribble, although he’s twitchy and has a degree of explosion. Better north-south, than east-west.
Bad misses can look really ugly, but he’s still the same tough shotmaker regardless really.
Will take pull-ups with defenders draped on him, over multiple contests, off-balance, early in the shotclock without anyone else touching the ball, etc.
Mostly just shoots over the top of defenders. Dribble moves are more for rhythm than separation.
Handle is alright, relatively speaking, but lacks wiggle upon closer inspection. Not an issue when shot goes in, but will be nitpicked a lot more if/when struggling.
Question is — is this a Jabari Smith sort of situation? Or more like Brandon Miller? I think Bailey is less stiff and more dynamic than Jabari, even if handle is similarly not that functional, and more creative than Miller.
Strength is the biggest issue, though. When a defender meets Bailey’s body, Ace can’t keep going off the dribble. Gets cut off really easily. This really contributes to the tough shot diet.
I like him as a play finisher right now, both catching-and-shooting & also cutting. Known more for his pull-up shotmaking, but there are tools to be leveraged off-ball.
Focusing on the shot: can convert threes in multiple ways. Spot-ups, catch-and-shoots, movement shots, trailer shots, pick-and-pops, etc. Will keep shooting even if ball isn’t going in.
If shot goes in, and I expect it will, can attack closeouts and off the catch within 1-2 dribbles. Want to see more aggression at the rim, but can also take a step inside and hit a pull-up.
Cutting takes away limitations with handle, but still makes most of pop, size, and scoring instincts. Saw some of this in Rutgers’ preseason exhibition vs. St. John’s.
Can he pitch in more often as a rebounder?
Also, floor might not be that dissimilar from a Zaccharie Risacher type of player… though ceiling is definitely higher.
Doesn’t attack the basket anywhere as much as he should. Body control and balance suffer if he has to play in traffic or bump against a defender.
Handle and ability to play with or through contact is still extremely limited. Gets cut off almost every single time if met with a body. Averse to playing physically.
Settles for pull-ups too often even when the lane is — or should be — available for him. Upside as a slasher exists because of tools, but needs to adjust shot profile towards attacking the rim more often.
Upright in gait and posture as a ballhandler, even if he plays with flash.
Can start and finish breaks — although I prefer him doing the latter. Right now, his best moments attacking the basket come in transition.
In the future, should be able to grab-and-go as a scorer and, ideally, as a passer. First one already shows up in high school tape.
Point forward reputation out of high school was very overstated. Makes some encouraging reads, but limitations truly exist with his handle, strength, and ability to get to spots. Too early to consider him a true dribble/pass/shoot prospect, but he does see the floor to some extent.
Creative with deliveries. Can zip passes off the live dribble and with one hand. Makes some quick reads with hit-aheads in the open court & touch passes and drop-offs on the interior.
Needs to do a much better job reading the help as a playmaker. Too often, just dribbles or passes straight into a second defender. Nail help in the NBA will be a big adjustment.
Looking even further down the line in terms of harder reads, will need to learn to read the backline better. Too often, gets past first defender, but then can’t read who’s still between him and the basket.
Constrained by lack of space creation with his handle. Accuracy as a passer is also improvable, considering some of his riskier attempts.
Defense:
When engaged, his length, size, and athleticism are factors playing in the passing lanes, closing out to the perimeter, and contesting a variety of shots. Can be annoying, but needs to tap into that far more often.
Physical dimensions also give him greater margin for recovery when he slips up or gambles, the latter of which he was prone to doing at HS level. Listed at 6-foot-10, rumored to have a wingspan around 7-feet.
Not an instinctual rim protector at all despite being tall and springy. In theory, should add way more in this department. In practice, ineffective and honestly mostly a non-factor.
Reaction time is late or even just completely lacking sometimes. Can let plays happen in front of him. Doesn’t exactly make multiple efforts. Not physical or intentional.
Defensive motor doesn’t appear that often. Stands out in this draft class because some of the other top prospects he’s competing with are guys like Cooper Flagg or VJ Edgecombe.
Physicality and effort are lacking. Even his engagement can be half-hearted at times, with things like boxing out, staying under control with his closeouts, or being disciplined with his contests.
Profile on this end sounds appealing, but right now, I feel like he doesn’t even make the right reads enough.
Still, clearly has upside, so it’s worth investing and coaching. Quick first jump above-the-rim, which is effective when he plays with discipline.
Strength, like on offense, is a big factor. Attackers get to their spots vs. Bailey, even if he can then maybe make a play with his length for now. That’s way less reliable in the NBA, though.
Doesn’t have much defensive versatility for now. I wouldn’t trust him guarding screens or sliding him across different ballscreen coverages, be it hedging, dropping, or playing at the level. But he can make some plays with his length and athleticism, even if he lacks the instincts.
Hope is that you get more out of him with more coaching+focus, and likely (at least initially) a narrowed-down offensive role.
Via NBADraft.net