2025 NBA Draft: Tre Johnson Scouting Report
Evaluating the Texas Longhorns prospect ahead of the 2025 NBA Draft.
DRAFT EVALUATION: Top 10 pick
NBA ROLE: Bucket-getting guard with on- and off-ball use
REMINDS ME OF: Cam Thomas, CJ McCollum, Kentucky Devin Booker
Background:
Birthday: March 7, 2006
Height: 6-foot-61
Wingspan: Reportedly 6-foot-10, but also reported to be 6-11
Weight: 190 pounds
Currently in his freshman year at Texas. Played his senior season of high school basketball at Link Academy (Missouri). Before that, played at Lake Highlands (Texas).
Represented USA at the 2023 U-19 World Cup. Averaged 11.1 points, 2.9 rebounds, and 2.6 assists in 7 games.
Dad is Richard Johnson Jr., who played college ball at Baylor and Midwestern State. Texas head coach Rodney Terry was an assistant at Baylor when Richard Jr. was a freshman there.
Grew five inches from freshman to junior seasons of high school. Has been focused on basketball since the fifth grade. Models his game after Kevin Durant and Jayson Tatum, and looks up to Tyrese Maxey.
Takeaway:
Tre Johnson is going to score the ball.
I like his positional size at 6-foot-6 with a reported 6-foot-10 wingspan, and what he brings to the table with his pull-up ability, difficult shotmaking, and on- and off-ball scalability. Johnson can create his own shot from the midrange and from three — he doesn’t usually need more than 1-3 dribbles — but he can also drill movement shots and spot-ups from downtown. When the game gets sticky, Johnson can clear out a wing and put some points on the board, or he can get into the post and convert really high-difficulty turnarounds to the point where he’s fading out of bounds.
Tre can definitely get a bucket, but the two main questions I have are 1) whether he can do enough of “everything else” in the NBA, and 2) whether he can downscale to a more streamlined role taking more of a backseat but maintaining his scoring.
On that first item, Johnson doesn’t rebound (0.6 OREB%, 8.3 DREB%) or honestly create for others (13.7 AST%). The good news is that he doesn’t turn the ball over (10.7 TOV% is really good)2, but that’s because he doesn’t look to pass. I’ve seen Johnson have some decent passing games before, and he’s looked to move the ball okay whenever I’ve evaluated him in-person. It’ll ultimately be about whether he can leverage his shooting gravity to make secondary reads and help his teammates. On defense, I believe the Texas freshman can remain solid when he’s engaged, but he doesn’t produce3 there either (17 steals, 8 blocks in 19 games). Ultimately, Johnson is wired to score.
That’s probably fine, because it seems to me like he is already a very good shooter with room to continue improving. I also think Tre could use a better, more efficient shot diet. Right now, I like how many threes he takes, but he also takes many complicated twos (part of this is team context) and iso possessions. He also doesn’t get to the rim or the free throw line enough, which prevents him from being a true three-level scorer. I actually prefer Johnson starting plays off the ball and then moving to it through a pindown, curl, catch-and-go, etc. He can unlock his game this way, while preserving that tough shotmaking ability that won’t go away.
Offense:
Bucketgetter who can create his own shot off the bounce in 1-3 dribbles. Averaging 19 points per game on 44.6/37.3/88.2 splits, as of Jan. 31. Has seven 20+ point games, including one 30-piece.
Generally makes quick moves. Doesn’t monopolize the ball, even if he takes a lot of shots (15 FGA per game).
Can score within three dribbles. Should be encouraged to keep it that way for the most part. 44.3 TS% on his off-the-dribble jumpers, per Synergy.
Positional size is a factor on this end. Guards are too small to defend him (6-6 with a 6-10 WS). High release point and very pretty mechanics on his jumper with good footwork.
Efficiency definitely isn’t bad, but 56.9 TS% on 26.7 USG% isn’t amazing either.
Can also score in isolation. 49.3 TS% (17/42) on isos, per Synergy. Takes but makes high-difficulty turnarounds and fadeaways, often out of post-ups. 64.4 TS% (14/23) on post-ups.
Drills shots from ridiculous angles. It looks like he’s fading out of bounds. High release point makes most contests a non-factor.
Takes a lot of threes. This is my favorite part about his shot diet. 44.2% of his shots are threes, and he takes 12 threes per 100 possessions.
It can be easy to generalize score-first, non-passing guards into being midrange fiends, but Johnson’s shot profile isn’t distributed like that.
Can play on- and off-ball from three. Great versatility that keeps him from being a one-dimensional scorer.
Making 40.3% (31/77) of his catch-and-shoot threes. Interestingly, makes 41.3 3P% of 'guarded' shots (19/46) vs. 38.7% (12/31) of his 'unguarded's. Speaks to his tough shotmaking.
Movement shooting is very appealing. Can drill threes receiving (dribble) handoffs, in transition or on BOB/SLOB plays. Quick trigger.
As a note: off-ball usage at Texas has been as a three-point shooter, and virtually never as a cutter.
Shot selection can be a concern. Doesn’t take too many ill-advised or absurd shots — although there are some, especially fading out of the post — but there are possessions where you know he’s not looking to pass at all. Makes his game (and his team) predictable.
Doesn’t put enough pressure on the basket, more than anything. Shooting 61% at the rim, but sample size is small at 25/41 for the year.
Related to this: doesn't get to the free throw line enough. 23.9 FTr is low. Needs to improve at playing with and through contact.
Can struggle to turn the corner on defenders and coming out of screens. Athleticism is more about speed than lift or especially strength.
To some extent, will likely benefit from more space and movement in the NBA.
If he improves his work in the paint, I buy him attacking closeouts. Right now, I think he likes one/two-dribble-in jumpers more than taking it hard to the rack. Might depend on floaters too much, but there’s potential there backed by numbers and tape.
Can he streamline his approach? That is, focus even more on moving without the ball, leveraging his three-point shooting in non-static ways, attacking closeouts, playing within 1-2 dribbles, making connective reads, and executing quick decisions?
Reminds me a lot of Cam Thomas, but there’s an argument to be made that Thomas’ best moments have come when he can’t take over his team.
Barely passes, but I don’t necessarily think he’s a non-passer. Very low turnovers, but also because he doesn’t look to create for others and he wants to score so much (41 AST to 30 TOV until now). Turnovers are mostly because he’s so focused on scoring that defenses can collapse on him, rather than because of bad accuracy, mistimed reads, etc.
Can keep the ball ticking sometimes, but can he make others better? Some signs are there with basic reads.
Makes some empty side ball screen reads, releasing rollers over the top when two defenders come to the ball.
Also some strong side reads, usually reading the elbow or attacking the baseline.
Defense:
Doesn’t produce on defense. I see him as a one-way player, referring to his offense, at this stage of his development.
Averaging 0.9 steals (1.6 STL%) and 0.4 blocks (1.4 BLK%) per game. 25 stocks in 19 games at 6-foot-6 is improvable.
Has the dimensions and means to be more effective. I've evaluated him live a couple of times, and I do think he gets the basics right — if he's engaged.
Can tag a roller, then close back out. Can help on a drive and recover to the perimeter. Even chase. Shouldn’t be a non-factor on this side of the floor.
Does he have the buy-in? Not sure a true defensive motor exists. Wired to score, not to get stocks or deflections. I don’t know that he can become a positive, but he needs to really work on not being a negative.
On-ball defense can be a struggle. Athletic package is more about moving forward, than it is about shuffling backwards or sliding sideways. Gives up too much ground, can be handsy, lacks twitch.
Needs to keep getting stronger, both upper and lower body. Can struggle to stay in front after getting hit by a screen.
Doesn’t or can’t do enough to prevent dribble penetration.
Has some technique issues. I’ve mostly noticed this with his closeouts and the angles he takes.
Doesn’t leverage his size (height and wingspan) on this end. Can use those physical tools on offense to attack mismatches, shoot over the top of defenders, etc. but this isn’t really the case on defense.
How many positions can he guard, if any, when he comes into the league? Theoretically should be able to switch 1-3, again, given the tools — but that’s way different in practice.
Off-ball defense can be a bit better, but still features too many lapses and moments of inactivity. Prone to gambling. Can ballwatch and concede rebounds or cuts.
%s via Bart Torvik
Stocks via Sports Reference