2025 NBA Draft: Ace Bailey Scouting Report
Evaluating the Rutgers shotmaker ahead of the 2025 NBA Draft.
DRAFT EVALUATION: Top 8 pick
LAST BIG BOARD: No. 5
NBA ROLE: Jumbo shotmaker who might be better served in a narrower, spot-up role
REMINDS ME OF: Michael Porter Jr., Brandon Miller
RAW STATS1: 17.6 PTS, 7.2 REB (2.1o/5.1d), 1.3 AST to 2 TOV, 1.0 STL, 1.3 BLK, 2.8 PF in 33.3 MINS over 30 GAMES
ADVANCED STATS: 3.8 BPM, 26.2 USG%, 53.6 TS%, 7.0 OREB%, 17.5 DREB%, 8.3 AST%, 13.4 TOV%, 0.6 A/TO, 1.7 STL%, 4.1 BLK%
Background:
Birthday: August 13, 2006
Height: Listed at 6-foot-102 but looks more like 6-foot-9 in person
Wingspan: N/A but looks to be around 7-feet in person
Weight: 210 pounds
Freshman year of HS was at Boyd Buchanan (TN).
Transferred to McEachern (GA) midway through his sophomore year in HS. Averaged 33.4 points, 15.5 rebounds, 3.9 assists, 2.9 blocks as a senior at McEachern.
Ramika McGee, mother, played college basketball at West Virginia. Venus Lacy, aunt, played in the WNBA and was on Team USA’s 1996 gold-medal Olympic team. Richard Bailey, father, played D-I basketball (went to University of Houston).
Played AAU hoops for Athletes of Tomorrow.
Full name is Airious Bailey. Oldest of four siblings. Grew up playing basketball, softball and football.
Takeaway:
Ace Bailey’s star potential stems from his ability to make seemingly impossible pull-ups over any defender, from any angle, while barely needing a sliver of space. Bailey, who doesn’t turn 19 until after the draft, is also young, with functional run-and-jump athleticism, and desirable measurements.
The Rutgers freshman’s talent level is rare, but his fit appears tricky within the context of a winning team. Bailey’s brand of basketball is reliant on a steady diet of very tough jumpers, while he doesn’t add enough as a playmaker or at the rim on both ends. Ace will get numbers and highlights, but his best moments often feel disconnected from the rest of the team — and not just in the sense of him getting a lot of isos (104 possessions iso’ing3 this season).
I think Bailey’s most straightforward NBA fit is likely in a narrower role, in which his absurd shotmaking skills are used in catch-and-shoot and movement looks. At the same time, this would require a near-total overhaul of Bailey’s individualistic game. He would need to reduce his touches, make much quicker decisions, and put more pressure on the paint when he attacks the rim.
Right now, the only decision Bailey usually makes is to score. He does not leverage his shotmaking gravity to create advantages for others. Bailey had 38 assists to 61 turnovers4 in 30 games, which speaks to why I think he’s pretty far away from any real initiating or ballhandling opportunities right now. The improvements to Ace’s ballhandling especially show up in the half-court. He has trouble separating against defenders off the dribble — although he doesn’t need space to get his shot off — and he isn’t aggressive enough at the basket (just 16 made half-court layups in 30 games).
Bailey definitely has the defensive tools with his rangy arms, ground coverage, and above-the-rim athleticism. His production this season, on the surface, was respectable with 2.3 ‘stocks’ per game. A deeper dive into the tape on this end, though, shows that Bailey really lacks the focus and consistency. Ace can lose track of what’s going on and be prone to ballwatching and conceding rebounds or cuts. He has potential as a help-side rim protector, but he isn’t in the right position enough while also lacking an extra degree of physicality.
Bailey’s shotmaking is so unique that his ceiling is ridiculously high. He can be a franchise cornerstone and an all-star level talent. That’s why the Rutgers prospect remains in my top five despite being a single-minded scorer and erratic decision maker. At the same time, I think that high end outcome requires a lot of optimistic thinking. Bailey is very young, but he would need to make substantial improvements to his ballhandling, finishing, off-ball defense, and (most of all) playmaking.
That said, I don’t think Bailey’s floor is exceedingly low. He has produced in every context so far thanks to his scoring and athleticism. Those two items mean that he can still become a regular starter on a good team, although probably as an off-ball wing instead of as a primary option, jumbo-sized shotmaker. A lower end outcome focusing on the latter features Bailey in a sparkplug role off the bench. He can dynamite a second unit that doesn’t require too much playmaking.
Offense:
Uniquely talented shotmaker off the dribble who converts a lot of really difficult pull-ups. Shot is impossible to contest for most defenders given his high release point, range, and willingness.
36.4% (40/110) on off-dribble twos is high volume. Especially comfortable from the midrange. Loves a turnaround jumper playing out of a jump stop.
Doesn’t need space to score. Sometimes doesn’t even take a single dribble. Can just jab and shoot over the top.
Doesn’t really create separation even when he puts the ball on the floor. Usually still just pulls up over defenders.
24.4 3P% (10/41) on off-dribble threes. Still willing, but less efficient and dangerous from deep. Again, doesn’t need to create space to shoot from downtown.
Shot diet has a high degree of difficulty and is difficult to fit into a wider team context. Takes a lot of smothered or off-balance pull-ups. Historically, has always relied on tough jumpers.
104 ‘Isolation’ possessions this season puts him in the 99% percentile for that play type. 0.769 points per possession on 33.7 FG% (29/86 FG, 7/20 3P). Only wants to score most of the time, which can become predictable.
53.6 TS% is middling. Gets numbers, but without efficiency. Ties into broader questions about what type of role he plays on a winning team.
Doesn’t create separation. Doesn’t need to in order to score, but hard to live like this. Handle is stiff and he can’t manipulate ballscreens. Lacks strength to beat defenders and dig-downs.
Is he better off in a compact role centered around catching-and-shooting and play finishing? Has a quick trigger, can get his shot off against just about any contest, and is a willing movement shooter.
38.7 3P% (36/93) on catch-and-shoot threes, which goes up to 41.7 3P% (35/84) taking away Zone defenses. 49.1 TS% on no-dribble jumpers. Also 61.9 2P% (13/21) on catch-and-shoot twos.
102 possessions Spotting Up with a 0.961 PPP compared to 102 and 0.769 PPP iso'ing, respectively.
Is he a better shooter on tougher shots?
Guarded: 43.9 3P% (29/66)
Unguarded: 25.9 3P% (7/27)
69.2 FT% (74/107) should be better.
Can attack off the catch when spotting up. Likes to take one or two dribbles inside into a pull-up. Would like to see him extend those attacks to the rim. Doesn’t put enough pressure on defenses.
Reconfiguring his role is a big adaptation process. Has gotten to where he is today playing that iso-style basketball. Shifting primarily to off-ball duties would require a huge buy-in from the player.
Half-court finishing needs to improve. Athleticism appears more functional off-ball than on-ball.
42.1% (16/38) on half-court layups is rough for both conversion and volume. Lack of strength and handle gives him problems creating space against set defenders. Gets rushed against any sort of slight pressure and tosses up wild attempts.
Runner displays touch. Making 60.9% (14/23) of those shots.
Much better in transition. Rises for big, athletic dunks when he has a runway. Not overly crafty, but has a floatover. 73.1% (19/26) in the open court with 9 dunks. In total, 63.7 FG% (65/102) at the rim. It’s the half-court projection that is murky.
Cutting and rebounding more can offset finishing concerns. Argument to be made that use at Rutgers accentuated Bailey’s biggest improvement points (his shot diet and his separation creation), rather than his most functional strengths.
35 possessions listed as ‘Cutting’ … 1.400 PPP …. 75.6 TS%
40 possessions listed as ‘Offensive Rebounds’ … 1.175 PPP … 61.4 TS%
Leverages his size and pop decently to get tip-ins and and-ones. Reminds me of Michael Porter Jr. on the glass.
Athleticism looks limited on-ball when he has to create space because he can’t shake defenders off with his handle. However, that’s not an issue when he’s off-ball and just has to move towards and jump above the rim.
Can he create for others at all? 38 assists to 61 turnovers in 30 games. Had 2 or less assists in 24 games this season. Slow processor. Single minded in wanting to score most of the time, if not basically always.
0.6 AST/TO … 8.3 AST% … 13.4 TOV% all speak to his non-passing.
Can’t be a primary initiator in today’s NBA if you can’t make decisions. Only decision Bailey tends to make is to shoot.
Telegraphs his intentions too often, especially when using a screen. Doesn’t manipulate defenses. Easy to read when and where he’s going to pass.
Accuracy needs to improve. Too many unforced, mistimed turnovers. Doesn’t use his size to consistently see over the top of defenses or access angles that smaller ballhandlers can’t get to.
Can make the extra pass. When spotting up, understands how to keep the ball ticking.
If he’s going to be so iso-heavy with his current shot diet, then he’ll absolutely need to understand how to playmake out of screens and out of the post.
Defense:
Tools are strong at around 6-foot-10 with a wingspan in the vicinity of 7-feet. Runs and jumps well. Hips are high, but covers ground.
Wiry frame needs to keep filling out. Listed at 210 pounds by Rutgers. Skinny lower body. Should be able to guard 3s and 4s in the future.
Can uses his length to be disruptive and productive. Hijacks inaccurate passes and can come up with two-way sequences where he gets the steal and the score.
Off-ball, can have use as the low man or the help when engaged in the paint. Flashes look tantalizing.
On-ball, twitchy and explosive with how he slides with ballhandlers and challenges shots. Athleticism gives him margin to recover when he gets beat or isn’t in position.
Glimpses of raw production this season in a challenging context. Little defensive talent and versatility around him at Rutgers.
In 30 games: 4.1 BLK% with 38 blocks … 1.7 STL%5 with 30 steals.
Offensive load/expectations should also be factored in.
Off-ball awareness must improve. Loses track of what’s going on too often.
Prone to ballwatching. Gives up cuts and rebounds. Actually very decent on the boards, but lets himself get beat too often.
Flashes of rim protection are buoyed by his athleticism, rather than his positioning. Not in the right position enough despite his length+pop being factors around the basket. Late with his rotations.
Screen navigation is inconsistent when chasing. Needs to get stronger to get through picks, but also a technique issue.
On-ball, high hips can lead to struggles against ballhandlers who can get very low.
What is his defensive motor and buy-in? Not abnormal for an 18-y/o, but doesn’t always make multiple efforts.
The potential for versatility and multipositional use exists, but I think it’s mostly theoretical right now.
Not sure that he hates getting scored on. Doesn’t get that frustrated when he has a lapse or makes a mistake.
Will he ever have the discipline and feel to play as a small-ball 5? Has the athleticism and probably the size. This isn’t a must by any means, but why not consider the possibility?
Via Synergy
Via Bart Torvik