2025 NBA Draft Big Board #3: End of NCAA season update!
Featuring Dylan Harper at No. 3, Kasparas Jakucionis at No. 15, Liam McNeeley at No. 22...
The NCAA season just ended with the Florida Gators crowned the national champions, so it feels like a good time for a Big Board update.
Truth be told, this draft is turning out to be less fun than I expected. The top of the class, through the lottery, is very talented and led by a generational prospect in Cooper Flagg — but it sort of feels like there’s a consensus top 20-25 that’ll be tough to crack into even with months to go before the draft.
That’s largely because the draft has lost a lot of depth. College players who have second round stocks and won’t receive guaranteed money are staying in school and get paid NIL money while enjoying the perks of being a student-athlete.
For instance, Texas Tech’s JT Toppin is expected to make $4m in NIL money next season, roughly what this draft’s 14th pick will make next season and what the 2024 draft’s 12th pick made this season. Toppin would need to go in the lottery to make more in the NBA next year than he would by returning to Texas Tech — although the NBA’s coveted second contract and longer-term earnings are a different topic.
Yaxel Lendeborg, the outgoing UAB forward who will transfer to Michigan unless he’s happy with his draft standing, said this to ESPN:
"I want a guaranteed contract. That's the biggest thing, make sure I am in a good spot. I would prefer to play college basketball than be in and out of the G League on a two-way.”
Then, international players (mostly European) are being recruited by and joining NCAA programs in bulk. Rather than going straight from Europe to the NBA, they now have a real intermediate step to adjust to American basketball more gradually and gain increased exposure while often playing more and training in better facilities. For NBA teams, it becomes easier to track and parse through these prospects. I’ll stress, though, that F-1 student visa restrictions prevent international players1 from making NIL $ in the United States.
On the note of international prospects, let’s also remember that European leagues are still playing. There is still draft-related basketball before the pre-draft combines. The NCAA season is over, as is the Australian NBL, but some Europe-based prospects can still improve their stocks in competitive action.
Cooper Flagg | Forward/Wing | Duke | Dec. 21, 2006
Cooper Flagg remains at the top of my big board — and he won’t be moving from there.
The Duke freshman is a generational two-way prospect who reminds me of Jayson Tatum and Kawhi Leonard. I’m a big believer in his rapidly expanding offense, and he exceeded my expectations on that end this season. Flagg created his own pull-up, handled the ball plenty, made plays in the pick-and-roll, etc. He’s still not perfect by any means — his handle and finishing, in particular, are the biggest points of improvement still — but the flashes and the growth are real. Flagg’s defensive dominance is established by now.
Contextually, this season was the longest stretch2 of Cooper’s career so far initiating and really carrying his team’s offense in such a pronounced way. Flagg still put together an amazing freshman campaign, averaging 19.2 PTS, 7.5 REB, 4.2 AST, 1.4 STL, and 1.4 BLKs on 48.1/38.5/84.0 splits while posting a 15.0 BPM3 and a 2.O A/TO. The national player of the year accomplished all of this while being the youngest prospect in the 2025 draft (he turns 19 on Dec. 21).
At this point last year, some of the talk centered around whether Flagg could be a No. 1 option in the NBA, in addition to being the No. 1 pick in 2025. For me, the answer is yes — while also having a super safe and dangerously high floor, as well.
Khaman Maluach 🇸🇸 | Big | Duke | Sept. 14, 2006
I wrote a whole piece about why I have Maluach at No. 2, so make sure to check that out.
Dylan Harper | Guard | Rutgers | March 2, 2006
Harper remains an awesome prospect in his own right. He has the potential to power an offense on his own and he’ll really raise the floor of a team.
Harper’s slashing and finishing looks elite4 and his strength is remarkable. That said, his athleticism is more below-the-rim. Then, the shot looks solid spotting up, but I’m concerned about it off the bounce5 from the midrange and from three. What counters does Harper have when he can’t get to the rack?
The Rutgers’ passing is reliable and seems to be improving. I love how often he touches the paint. But it needs to be better if he’s to be a point guard. On the defensive side, Harper has the positional size and strength but I’m unsure about his output. He’s not exactly a one-way player, but the offense far overwhelms the defense.
VJ Edgecombe | Guard/Wing | Baylor | July 30, 2005
There’s a lot to love about VJ Edgecombe: his mesmerizing athleticism, his never-ending motor, his plentiful defensive production, his on-ball flashes as a scorer and even passer…
To toss out some guys who VJ reminds me of, I’m thinking about Victor Oladipo, Amen Thompson or Russell Westbrook at UCLA. Closer to Cason Wallace might be a low-end outcome. Lofty expectations, but that’s how much I believe in Edgecombe’s two-way potential as a slightly unconventional guard.
The broad swing skill for the Baylor playmaker, as with those other prospects, is his half-court offense. The jumper is probably more noticeable, but Edgecombe’s finishing is just as big of an improvement point.
He only made 44.6% (34/77) of his half-court layups. For the season, he finished shooting 53.8% (91/169) at the rim. It's fair to expect more given VJ's tools, though he had 33 dunks in as many games. Edgecombe also needs to keep improving his handle and passing to play on the ball even more.
Ace Bailey | Wing | Rutgers | August 13, 2006
Let’s get the obvious out of the way first which is that Ace Bailey’s shot selection needs to improve. So does his passing. For most of the season, the Rutgers prospect barely made plays for his teammates. Then, the defensive lapses happen pretty regularly.
At the same time, Bailey is a special shotmaker and very good athlete at around 6-foot-9. Most of the time, he can just rise over the top of a defender and pull up regardless of how improvable his overall process might still be. Often, those shots go in from difficult angles or seemingly dead possessions. More than that, I prefer Bailey as more of an off-ball shooter, tapping into his catch-and-shoot and movement ability.
Thinking about recent drafts, Bailey reminds me of prospects like Jabari Smith Jr. and Brandon Miller. Thinking about the NBA, Michael Porter Jr. is a very obvious reference point — although Bailey is coming into the league with a 100% health bar and no back issues.
Ace can also rebound at a pretty good level. He impressed me with his effort and toughness on the glass this season, adding value on the boards for Rutgers even when his shot wasn’t falling. The same can’t be said for the 18-year-old’s passing6. Defensively, Bailey needs to stay more focused, more often — but he has pretty good tools, some versatility, and flashes a little bit of rim protection which might be explorable given his length, bounce, and okay toughness.
Kon Knueppel | Guard/Wing | Duke | Aug. 3, 2005
Kon Knueppel is way more than he was shaped up to be. I scouted him recently, and I think that I undersold him a little bit. Now, I’m really honing in on that ‘Cam Johnson as a guard’ idea. I’m even getting a little Austin Reaves.
Knueppel is an amazing shooter, but he’s also a pretty capable ballhandler. He runs the pick-and-roll steadily (great chemistry with Maluach this season) and combines his handle+strength to get to his spots. That’s despite being a below average athlete, which is honestly probably Kon’s biggest limitation on both ends.
I’ll be watching to see how Knueppel’s shooting off the dribble fares at the next level. I thought he was pretty good in high school and EYBL (he was consistently a top scorer at these levels), but the numbers at Duke7 were meh on a small sample size.
Tre Johnson | Guard | Texas | March 7, 2006
Tre Johnson is maybe the best pure scorer in this draft class (the finishing8 needs to improve, though) and I think he’s an underrated passer. The Texas freshman also has very decent positional size. The defense can be problematic, but it’s not disastrous. I think he’ll get buckets on the ball, but I prefer him as more of an off-ball, ultra-movement threat.
Collin Murray-Boyles | Forward | South Carolina | June 10, 2005
I’ll publish a video and scouting report Collin Murray-Boyles in the coming week or so, so I’ll dive into deeper detail then, but here are five things that make me high on CMB:
Functional athleticism (mix of length, strength, hand-eye coordination, pop, and quick reactions to overcome his lack of pure size)
Connectivity (two-way event creation, short roll passing, quick decision-making, doesn’t force plays)
On-ball flashes (CMB plays in the post a lot at South Carolina, but there are plenty of examples of him making plays off the dribble, in transition or facing up at the elbows/free throw line)
Context (his South Carolina team, frankly, was not good… think about him surrounded by better teammates and also not being swamped by as much attention)
Age and developmental trajectory (I touched on this in my Maluach piece, but think about how CMB is a sophomore with two seasons of very good production… and he remains younger than Derik Queen, the next guy on my board who shares some similarities to the South Carolina prospect)
Derik Queen | Forward | Maryland | Dec. 27, 2004
I’ve made plenty of written and video content on Derik Queen, but the one thing I’ve really been thinking about lately is what happens if he doesn’t/can’t shoot in the NBA. Also, when comparing him to CMB above, Queen is an older freshman and a worse athlete.
Jeremiah Fears | Guard | Oklahoma | Oct. 14, 2006
Jeremiah Fears carried Oklahoma’s offense as a pick-and-roll playmaker on extremely high usage despite being a reclassified freshman who won’t turn 19 until October.
He created tons of advantages as a scorer and facilitator, but it's clear that his efficiency needs to improve at the rim, as a pull-up shooter, and as a passer. Still, a lot of that can probably be attributed to how much Oklahoma expected from him.
For the most part, Fears did pretty well. He's a creative, although inefficient, pick-and-roll operator with maybe the best handles in the draft. Fears is a crafty passer who generates threes and shots at the rim, but needs to keep working on his body on top of cutting down on unforced turnovers.
Keep in mind that I believe in Fears’ on- AND off-ball scalability more than the guards who are below him.
Carter Bryant | Forward | Arizona | Nov. 26, 2005
I’m fascinated by Arizona freshman Carter Bryant. He caught my eye all season, and then a deeper dive captured my attention. It remains to be seen whether he’ll declare for the 2025 draft, but I have content on him ready to go if he does.
With Bryant, think a long, bouncy wing with prototypical measurements who makes athletic plays in the open court, makes9 spot-up threes, can attack off the bounce, playmake10 out of the short roll or in transition, and also shows incredible on- and off-ball defensive11 potential.
His highest-end outcome reminds me of Jalen Johnson, but a safer fallback is a big wing who defends multiple positions, shoots threes, and can probably also act as a small-ball big in due time.
Egor Demin | Guard | BYU | March 3, 2006
I remain fairly high on Egor Demin, although I acknowledge the limitations he can have creating separation in the half-court, being assertive on offense, and making12 threes. His numbers against top competition this season were bad, and his early season numbers were inflated by playing against low level competition.
I see Demin as a ballhandler, not as a point guard. A guy who needs to be on-ball for at least stretches of the game to feel comfortable, but who’s probably not going to be tasked with being his team’s 1 against set defenses (especially in late game situations). That’s alright, though.
I’m still really valuing his positional size and playmaking skills, overall creativity, shooting flashes across multiple levels and contexts, and coveted archetype (wing-sized ballhandler and decision-maker) in NBA circles.
The BYU freshman is the easiest player comparison for me in this draft: Josh Giddey, but slightly more comfortable shooting the three-pointer at a similar developmental stage.
Noa Essengue | Forward/Wing | Ulm | Dec. 18, 2006
Noa Essengue piques my interest because of his fluidity, length, defensive versatility, improving on-ball flashes, and overall production while being very young.
However, I think that quite a bit of offensive improvement still needs to happen for Essengue to be functional in the NBA half-court13. The defense is appetizing, but the Frenchman’s frame is somewhat narrow and must keep filling out.
Also, I just don’t love the track record of German league draft prospects (Joshua Obiesie, Will McDowell-White, Karim Jallow, Isaac Bonga, Killian Hayes, Juan Nuñez…), but I’m not really holding that against Essengue.
Jase Richardson | Guard | Michigan State | Oct. 16, 2005
Jase Richardson silenced my questions about his low volume. Since entering Michigan State's first five on Feb. 8, Richardson averaged 16.1 PTS, 1.7 AST to 0.7 TOV, 4.6 REB, and 1 STK on 47.0/42.0/81.9 splits (taking 4.6 threes and 4.8 free throws per game).
My main question with Richardson now, which also existed before, is that there are few guys in the NBA who resemble him size- and style-wise. Jared McCain seems like the closest (he was pretty good as a rookie).
Kasparas Jakucionis | Guard | Illinois | May 29, 2006
I’m guessing that this might seem low for Kasparas Jakucionis.
Thinking about the concepts in my Maluach/Harper No. 2 piece, the heliocentric Illinois playmaker is a concerning athlete off the bounce and at the rim and he’s a worse defender (and again, athlete) than Harper. Just as importantly, Jakucionis’ high turnover volume14 makes him a less reliable playmaker and advantage creator.
He’d need to improve a lot to fulfill his desired potential.
Asa Newell | Forward | Georgia | Oct. 5, 2005
Similar tweener ideas apply with Asa Newell and Essengue, but I buy the latter’s offense and youth a bit more. Newell has the edge body-wise.
Sergio de Larrea | Guard/Wing | Valencia | Dec. 4, 2005
De Larrea is a 6-foot-6-or-7 facilitator with pick-and-roll playmaking instincts, passing creativity, driving ability, and perimeter shooting. The Valencia prospect is young, only having turned 19 on Dec. 4, and incredibly well-regarded by virtually everyone in Spanish basketball.
De Larrea’s body continues to be what needs the most work, but his athleticism and general body movement look much better this season. He also needs to keep improving as a finisher, where physicality in traffic can be an issue. Plus, even though the Valladolid-born prospect has played the 1 all his life, it’s likely that he’ll be more of a general ballhandler in the NBA rather than a full-time point guard.
That isn’t really an issue for me, though. I trust Sergio to make reliable and creative reads when the ball is in his hands, regardless of whether it’s there for 15 seconds or .5 seconds. I prefer De Larrea amassing more touches, as he’s quite crafty in the pick-and-roll for himself and others, but he’s able to make decisions off the catch or move the ball along quickly in a less focal role. Looking at the NBA, he’s not the most dynamic athlete or ballhandler, so moving away from being a full-time point guard, at least at first, will probably help. That doesn’t mean not getting playmaking touches at all, though. Think Dyson Daniels or now Kyshawn George.
De Larrea’s defensive outlook is relatively positive thanks to his positional size and feel for the game. He has the typical lapses of any 18 y/o, but those aside, he’s impressive when locked in both on and off-ball. De Larrea covers distance from side-to-side pretty well and his active hands+length can be annoying to encounter. He has potential at the point of attack, but…
In order for De Larrea to fulfill his defensive upside, there are two big improvement points. The first is continuing to get stronger and bouncier. His dimensions will match a lot of wings, but his body doesn’t. Both upper body and lower trunk need work, but that’s often the case for young European teenagers who cross over to the NBA. Then, to have effective POA use, De Larrea needs to get better at measuring distances and then matching the faster, shorter steps that smaller ballhandlers take. Right now, he’s almost too big for most ballhandlers, but too weak for most wings.
Adou Thiero | Wing/Forward | Arkansas | May 8, 2004
I love Adou Thiero’s strength, length, defensive tools, and at-rim volume — but his offensive output is shaky, especially at the next level.
Thiero, who grew up as a guard but plays the 3 and 4 now, is powerful getting into the lanes and operating through contact. The Arkansas prospect had 45 dunks in 27 games this season, which is amazing for a wing, but he only made 49.4% (43/87) of his lay-ups. It’s how, or if, Thiero scores that remains his biggest swing skill. He also only converted 28.6% of his catch-and-shoot threes on very low volume (12/42).
Nolan Traoré | Guard | Saint-Quentin | May 28, 2006
On one hand, I think there’s been too much made of Traoré’s season. It’s not dissimilar to what he did last year, and we have to remember that this is his first full season against grown men. I also love the Frenchman’s ability to rack up paint touches.
On the other hand, Traoré’s inefficiency (37 FG%, 27 3P%) as a scorer is really hard to overlook. If he’s that unreliable, that almost certainly closes off the rest of his game (mostly his ballhandling and passing) at a high level.
Will Riley | Wing/Guard | Illinois | Feb. 10, 2006
It remains TBD whether Will Riley, who reclassified15 to play at Illinois this season, enters the 2025 draft. I really appreciate his scoring and track record of production at previous16 levels, underrated creativity and feel (2.2 AST, 1.9 A/TO, 11.3 TOV%), and positional size.
Riley severely lacks strength, which is probably his swing skill. If he bulks up enough for the NBA to add more as a defender, finisher, and iron out his overall advantage creation process, I'm bullish on the Illinois swingman returning top 20 value.
Danny Wolf | Forward/Wing | Michigan | May 5, 2004
I’m not overly high on Danny Wolf, but I’m betting on his overall creativity and dribble/pass/shoot skillset coming together. It feels like it’s a great time in the NBA to have those tools. He needs to assuage my concerns about his spot-up shooting and defense, though, because I think that Wolf will scale down rather than scale up.
Liam McNeeley | Wing | UConn | Oct. 10, 2005
McNeeley is a worse athlete with less versatility and defense than the two wings I have below him, but I think he might be a special shooter. That’s what sets him apart at a time when shooting is incredibly important in the NBA.
That said, I’m concerned that the UConn prospect lacks ancillary skills with how he attacks closeouts, makes decisions, and creates for others while also not really adding that much on defense.
Rasheer Fleming | Forward/Wing | St. Joe’s | July 10, 2004
I love Fleming’s size, length, year-to-year improvement, and his production this season, but I feel like the St. Joe’s prospect still needs to make one more step forward in terms of consistency.
Also, Fleming is a slight tweener on offense. Is he a 3 or a 4? Maybe some teams develop him as a 5? He has the size and his defensive versatility might make up for any questions on offense.
Noah Penda | Wing | Le Mans | Jan. 7, 2005
An amazing defender — top 5 in this draft for sure, if not top 3 — but Penda is a little bit older having to adapt to NBA basketball, and I’m a bit unsure about what gravity he’ll have in the NBA if he either can’t make threes or only makes them on very low volume.
Labaron Philon | Guard | Alabama | Nov. 24, 2005
I like Philon’s handling and passing a lot, and I enjoy the defense, but I’m worried about the size and what his go-to for scoring in the NBA is.
In which case, it feels slightly absurd that American players can make NIL $ even in high school (in some states) and then college — but international players’ contracts are still scrutinized for eligibility purposes by the NCAA.
There are many improvements to be made with how money is treated and regulated in the college game nowadays.
The third highest-ever tracked on Bart Torvik for a freshman behind only Zion Williamson (2019) and Anthony Davis (2012)
67.6% overall on very high volume (121/179 ... 1.35 PPS), 66.2% at the rim in the half-court on 77/118 attempts
29.2 3P% (28/96) on off-dribble threes, 27.8 FG% (15/54) on off-dribble twos vs. 36.8 3P% (21/57) on catch-and-shoots
8.3 AST%, 0.6 A/TO, 1.3 assists per game, 38 assists in 30 games (1000 minutes)
3/21 on off-dribble threes, but 16/37 on off-dribble twos
50% on lay-ups (49/98) for the season
36.1 3P% (35/97) on catch-and-shoots
1.0 A/TO is juuuuust about okay
5.8 BLK%, 2.8 STL%
27.3 3P% (42/154), 9.9 threes per 100
46.7% on half-court layups
25.4 TOV%, plus 1.3 A/TO is low for such a ball-dominant guard
But he was born on Feb. 10, 2006. Places him around the same age as many other freshmen, and older than fellow reclasses Jeremiah Fears, Cooper Flagg, Khaman Maluach…
Averaged 21.9/4.7/2.5 in his last EYBL season. Averaged 26.5/6.0/4.1 in his last high school season. Was MVP of the 2024 Basketball Without Borders camp.