2025 NBA Mock Draft: Post-lottery edition
Cooper Flagg will almost certainly join the Dallas Mavericks.
In one of those stories that seems too good to be true, the Dallas Mavericks will pick at No. 1 in the 2025 NBA Draft.
The Mavs entered Monday’s lottery with only a 1.8% chance at the first overall selection. Cooper Flagg is almost certainly headed to Dallas. A cumbersome defensive duo with Anthony Davis will have GM Nico Harrison salivating, and I’m very interested in how Flagg fits with Kyrie Irving and the Mavs’ two centers, as well.
The result of the lottery was so shocking that I feel like the rest of the draft’s top 14 hasn’t been focused on as much. But there’s a lot to talk about there, as well, such as how the teams that tanked slid.
The San Antonio Spurs at No. 2 is also remarkable. They can add another incredibly promising prospect around Victor Wembanyama (and now De’Aaron Fox), or they can dangle the second pick to target a more established superstar like Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant.
Of course, Dallas could raise the stakes with the No. 1 pick — and the organization has ties to the Antetokounmpo family, having previously rostered Giannis’ younger brother Kostas.
There’s a lot to think about, so here’s an updated mock draft from No. 1-30! This is roughly based on how I would approach the draft from each team’s perspective.
DALLAS MAVERICKS — Cooper Flagg
The Duke freshman is a generational talent who is the no-brainer No. 1 pick in the 2025 draft.
Flagg is the type of talent thar you build around, and I thought his time in college answered any questions about whether or not he can be a number one option. In any case, Cooper’s floor is also really safe. He is guaranteed to be a tremendous defender — among the best in the NBA — and, at bare minimum, a connector on offense.
I see Flagg as more than that, though. He reminds me of a blend of Kawhi Leonard, Jayson Tatum, and Draymond Green. Really high praise, but I’m not concerned because that’s how good Flagg is.
Focusing on his fit in Dallas, the defense next to Anthony Davis is fascinating. He won’t be over-tasked down the other end at first, either, and his teammates will have the gravity to open up his off-ball scoring (which is what shined for most of Flagg’s career pre-Duke).
SAN ANTONIO SPURS — Dylan Harper
I expect Harper to go No. 2, although the Spurs might consider moving this pick. San Antonio also has the No. 14 pick at the end of the lottery.
Even though Harper is third on my personal board, I’d still be happy with drafting him at No. 2. I view Steph Castle as a wing, so I’m not worried about any overlap with him and Harper. De’Aaron Fox poses a bit more of a challenge, but I think you just draft Harper, buy into his off-ball flashes, and figure it out from there.
The Rutgers prosspect is a big, strong guard who loves to get downhill and put pressure on the rim. He converted about 68% of his 179 shots at the basket this season, which is great volume and efficiency.
However, I think that Harper will need to make substantial improvements to his pull-up shooting, while also making a big leap as a playmaker in order to be a true number one option. I’ve written about this before.
Still, I’m going with Harper over my No. 2 prospect because I slightly prefer the fit alongside Victor Wembanyama (where Dylan wouldn’t have to be a primary option), and I think it’s a likelier choice for the Spurs.
PHILADELPHIA 76ers — Khaman Maluach
I’m not viewing Harper as the surefire No. 2, but it’s more likely than not that the 2025 draft really opens up starting with the Sixers at No. 3.
I’ve gone with Khaman Maluach for Philly here because I think that he can be Joel Embiid’s successor in the long term, his back-up in the short term, and he adds size and defense to insulate Tyrese Maxey, Jared McCain, and I suppose even Quentin Grimes.
Maluach also adds scheme versatility with the potential for Nick Nurse to turn to two-big looks. He has a safe floor on offense, a very high one on defense, and arguably has the best physical tools in the draft to go along with glowing intel.
The NBA covets dribble/pass/shoot prospects right now, but how many ballhandling prospects in this draft can realistically do that while returning no. 3 pick value? I’m not sure there are many.
Flagg won't be there. Harper probably won’t be there. Jeremiah Fears, Kon Knueppel, Nolan Traoré, Kasparas Jakucionis, Derik Queen, and Jase Richardson maybe fit that but all have significant questions. Ace Bailey, Egor Demin, VJ Edgecombe, and Collin Murray-Boyles lack at least one of those skills to maybe a harmful extent.
Keep in mind you probably give this player their second contract later on. Maybe I'm just not that high on any of these prospects, but I like all of them.
Maluach reminds me of Deandre Ayton, Dereck Lively, and Mark Williams. Ayton was a key piece of a team that contended for an NBA championship and averaged 17p/10r during his Phoenix career basically just finishing plays. That’s pretty great. Maluach doesn't have any of the motor questions and projects much better on defense.
CHARLOTTE HORNETS — VJ Edgecombe
Edgecombe provides the Hornets’ backcourt with defense, above-the-rim athleticism, and overall relentlessness.
I’m high on VJ due to his blend of elite athleticism, two-way production, on-ball flashes, and very high defensive floor. In a high-end outcome, the Baylor prospect can be a top 3 player on a deep playoff team. Think Russell Westbrook or Amen Thompson with less handles.
In a median outcome, the 19-year-old is a defense-first, off-ball guard who primarily scores in transition and out of catch-and-shoots. That’s something closer to a version of Victor Oladipo or, more recently, maybe Cason Wallace except with way more explosion.
Edgecombe’s lowest-end scenario sees the Bahamian swingman not developing his finishing, ballhandling, and maybe shooting enough to be a guard, while also lacking the size and length to truly be a wing.
I prefer Edgecombe to someone like Ace Bailey for the Hornets because I’m not convinced about pairing his feel and shot selection/playing habits next to LaMelo Ball and especially Brandon Miller.
UTAH JAZZ — Collin Murray-Boyles
This is not a flashy selection, but I love Murray-Boyles’ fit around Lauri Markkanen, and the Jazz’s timeline can hold off another year to make a run at the 2026 draft for a ball-dominant superstar. I’m really thinking AJ Dybantsa (Utah Prep/BYU), but Darryn Peterson or Cameron Boozer would be equally great.
I believe in Murray-Boyles due to his intersection of functional athleticism, two-way connectivity, flashes of on-ball upside, and two years of college production while being relatively young. The South Carolina forward is younger than Derik Queen, who just finished his freshman year, for example.
In a best-case scenario, Murray-Boyles can be the third-best player on a deep playoff team. A lower-end outcome is centered around how he still has decent feel, but ultimately lacks the shot and the size to excel in either frontcourt position.
CMB measured at 6-foot-6½ barefoot with a 7-foot-0¾" wingspan and an 8-foot-10½ standing reach. He basically does not take threes at all, so that mix of non-shooting and relatively small stature is likely to give teams pause.
WASHINGTON WIZARDS — Ace Bailey
Ace gives the Wizards get a lot of things they covet: length, athleticism, shotmaking, and superstar upside.
Bailey is probably the toughest shotmaker in this draft, and he’s still only 18. The Rutgers prospect can convert all sorts of ridiculous jumpers from impossible angles despite creating no space off the dribble.
Bailey measured in around 6-foot-8 barefoot rather than his listed height of 6-foot-10, but that doesn’t really take away from who he is as a player. My evaluation remains very similar.
The good news is that Bailey is a bucket who lives on a tough diet of pull-ups, but whose scoring is also efficient off the ball. He might be able to downscale in the NBA while focusing more on rebounding and cutting.
However, this would take a huge adjustment. Then, Ace is an inconsistent defender with a penchant for wild shots, he is a poor ballhandler in the sense that he cannot separate from defenders, he does not put enough pressure on the rim despite his size+pop, and he is virtually a non-passer.
Still, the reward can be huge.
NEW ORLEANS PELICANS - Tre Johnson
The Texas freshman is a pure bucket getter who reminds me of Tyler Herro, Cam Thomas, or C.J. McCollum, and the Pelicans have the wing defenders+size to cover for him on that end.
Johnson makes some super difficult shots off the bounce and he loves to call an iso to get a bucket.
He’s also a flexible ballhandler and a capable decision-maker when he’s focused on passing, although he does not put pressure on the rim. I think that Johnson will at least make some decisions out of the pick-and-roll, and he should gradually understand how to leverage his scoring into passes. At the very least, he isn’t a total non-passer like his reputation sometimes implies.
However, Johnson contributes very little as a defender and needs to become more physical. Given that, and thinking about the NBA landscape, I think it’s fair to wonder how soon and in what capacity his archetype can tangibly contribute to winning.
Besides this landing spot, I think that Johnson is a logical target for the Sixers at No. 3, and I don’t think he’d slide past the next three picks.
BROOKLYN NETS — Jeremiah Fears
There’s a lot of doom and gloom among the Brooklyn faithful after sliding in the draft lottery, but I don’t actually think the Nets are in a bad spot here. They were projected to pick at No. 6 before Monday — and they’re still in the same range, meaning that the player they want might be there regardless.
Of course, I get that it’s upsetting to slide — or that it’s even more upsetting to not beat the odds and get a higher pick — but it is what it is.
Fears is the best prospect available, the Nets played most of the season without a point guard, and he projects decently off-ball in the case of future roster moves (be that in the 2026 draft, in free agency, or in the trade market).
The Oklahoma prospect reclassified to play as a college freshman this season, and he was a super high-usage, pick-and-roll playmaker. Fears lacked efficiency shooting and passing, his turnovers could be frustrating sometimes, but he’s one of those cases where his context and youth must really be taken into consideration.
A wider look shows that Fears still created a ton of advantages as a scorer and playmaker while being incredibly young and the main target of every team’s defense. All of this might apply under Jordi Fernandez next season, as well.
TORONTO RAPTORS — Kon Knueppel
I was considering some other names here, including the next pick, but I can’t get past the idea of surrounding Scottie Barnes with high-level shooters and capable decision-makers.
I’m evaluating Knueppel’s NBA outcome to be similar to Cam Johnson but as a guard. The Duke freshman is a sniper from three, but his ballhandling and facilitating cannot be overlooked. Kon uses his handle and strength effectively to get to his spots and make plays out of the pick-and-roll.
All of this comes despite being a below-average athlete, which is the 19-year-old’s biggest question mark going forward—especially on defense. Still, I think Knueppel’s floor is decently safe thanks to his three-point shooting and overall scalability. Then, I’m intrigued by whether he might be able to scale up.
Kon is honestly scalable to any team, so I wouldn’t be surprised if his range truly started at No. 3 to the Sixers, where he would be a great fit. I also like him with the Nets and the Pelicans (the same idea regarding surrounding Scottie with shooting and feel applies to Zion Williamson).
HOUSTON ROCKETS — Noa Essengue
Essengue has my interest because of his fluidity, two-way length, improving on-ball flashes, and overall production while not turning 19 till mid-December.
The Ulm prospect brings forward shades of Scottie Barnes or Jerami Grant, but I think that’s still idealistic. Essengue might remain more of a 4 who is too small to be a 5, instead of a 4 that can be a big 3.
A lot of offensive improvement needs to happen, especially in the half-court, and his frame needs to keep filling out. I like his defensive range and potential to guard multiple positions, though.
My thought process here is that whoever the Rockets need to take that final step is not going to come from the draft. Most likely, it comes from a trade. If it comes internally, then it will be from someone already on the roster, such as Reed Sheppard who has not gotten minutes, Jalen Green if he gets to that next level, Cam Whitmore (seems unlikely at this stage), or maybe the likeliest option is Amen Thompson becoming an all-star.
I considered Kasparas Jakucionis for Houston seeing as how Fred VanVleet isn't a long-term piece. Plus, the Rockets have looked for guys who can really score (AJ Griffin, Whitmore, Sheppard, even Josh Christopher) — but I returned to the idea that he isn't going to get them over the hump. Essengue can be ushered along patiently.
Instead, I chose Essengue because of his big-time potential, and how he also has things that Houston's front office values. That includes his youth, length, athleticism, and pre-NBA, non-NCAA production. For instance, Thompson came from OTE, Green from Ignite, Sengun from Turkish league, Usman Garuba from Real Madrid...
PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS — Egor Demin
I’m still high on Demin because he’s a 6-foot-9 ballhandler who is arguably the best passer of the 2025 draft.
He definitely has significant limitations as a ballhandler when it comes to creating space and finishing in the half-court — plus, the shot is a question — but I’m actually a believer in the latter. My comparison for the Russian prospect is Josh Giddey with a better three-pointer.
I think Demin’s shooting history isn’t focused on enough, and I like his volume and willingness. That said, his conversion will have to improve compared to his only season at BYU in order to get the most out of his passing.
More than anything, I’m interested in seeing how Demin is used in the NBA. I don’t think he’s strictly a point guard, or at least not until some improvements to his handle and shake, but I expect him to remain on the ball a lot and still make plenty of decisions.
Here is what Blazers assistant GM Mike Schmitz said about Demin in 2021: “Despite playing up a year at age 15, Demin shined as one of the top long-term prospects we saw abroad. Standing 6-foot-7 with long arms, big feet and clear growth potential, the Russian guard has ideal size for a modern playmaker and the type of focus, intensity and poise you look for in an international prospect. […] He might not have the burst or vertical explosion of a traditional lead guard, but his size allows him to see over the top of the defense to make most of the necessary reads, and his overall court sense helps him control the game when the ball is in his hands. Even if he doesn't ultimately play the point guard position, he'll have more than ample size to operate as a floor-spacing, shot-creating wing. […] Although a bit on the streaky side (30% from 3), Demin has all the makings of a big-time shotmaker. He has excellent balance and touch -- both off the catch and off the bounce -- and has no shortage of confidence, knocking down 13 triples in just 116 minutes with several coming from beyond the NBA line.”
CHICAGO BULLS - Derik Queen
I’m just focused on the Chicago Bulls getting as much skill as possible, so Queen the best player available at this No. 12 spot.
I like the idea of pairing Queen with Matas Buzelis, as well. Queen will post up, face up, attack off the bounce, push in transition, and create for others.
The 20-year-old freshman is so highly skilled off the dribble that some teams might overlook his below-average physical tools. Queen also monopolizes the ball in a somewhat risky way, doesn’t really take threes, and needs to cut down on turnovers.
Those are the items he needs to address, but Queen also scores and passes at a high level and has been really productive with a track record of winning throughout his basketball journey.
Queen has also been mocked to Portland recently. I think that he’d be fine for the Blazers and his dribble hand-off/passing game could be a lot of fun around Scoot Henderson, Shaedon Sharpe, Toumani Camara, Kris Murray, etc.
My concern is that he'd really hamper Portland's spacing if he can't/doesn't shoot (which is easier said than done), and he kinda goes against the athletic profiles the Blazers have looked at lately.
Look at their roster with Robert Williams, Anfernee Simons, Sharpe, Rayan Rupert, Scoot, Bryce McGowens, Sidy Cissoko, Camara, Dalano Banton, Deni Avdija...
ATLANTA HAWKS - Kasparas Jakucionis
This sort of doubling down on why Atlanta drafted Kobe Bufkin, who has only played 320 minutes in his first two NBA seasons.
Jakucionis is a very creative playmaker with decent positional size and a dangerous stepback three against switches. His production is strong, but I see Jakucionis as more of a sixth man or bench leader, kind of like recent Hawk Bogdan Bogdanovic.
I worry about his athleticism and his efficiency, which might be tied in a way that is inextricable. I’m not convinced that Jakucionis can play off the ball to mitigate that, so I’m probably lower on him than most.
The Lithuanian prospect could make sense for the Nets at No. 8 and the Rockets at No. 10.
SAN ANTONIO SPURS — Danny Wolf
Wolf can handle, pass, and score while coming in at close to 7-feet. I see him as a 4 or a big wing, not as a center, but it’s rare to find guys who are so big and so skilled.
Wolf is lower on my board around the late teens, but I think that the Spurs would love to pair Victor Wembanyama with another center-sized player. Plus, San Antonio has taken some risks in the draft recently, and they like players who do a bit of everything.
I think that Wolf’s diverse skillset on offense can really flourish in the NBA; however, I’m not sure who he defends. The Michigan prospect lacks the footspeed to stay with wings, isn’t athletic enough to switch onto guards, and doesn’t protect the rim or the post well enough against centers.
Operating under the idea that the Spurs will target a big here, some other interesting possibilities are: Murray-Boyles if he slides, Asa Newell, Joan Beringer, and Maxime Raynaud.
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