Making sense of Ace Bailey's 2025 NBA Draft process
Diving into what previous workout refusals might say about Ace's predraft strategy.
NEW YORK — The intrigue surrounding Ace Bailey is building, with less than a week remaining until the 2025 NBA Draft.
Yet many experts aren't sure what to make of Bailey, who could be sliding a bit in the June 25-26 draft.
The Philadelphia 76ers won't get a first-hand view of Bailey, whose camp has declined a workout request by the team. Sixers president of basketball operations Daryl Morey wanted to take a closer look but was rebuffed by Bailey’s agent, Omar Cooper.
Cooper has sparked a good share of controversy by putting restrictions on the type of workouts his client would do. The Sixers indicated they would not be scared to select Bailey on draft night.
Now, what if I told you that the words above were actually written on June 24, 2007 about Chinese power forward Yi Jianlian, the Milwaukee Bucks and their director of player personnel Dave Babcock, and Yi’s agent Dan Fegan?
Ace Bailey’s predraft strategy is far from novel — so let’s fast forward to June 23, 2025.
The Rutgers freshman recently canceled a scheduled visit and workout with the Sixers, who hold the No. 3 pick this draft. ESPN added that Bailey has declined invitations from teams in his range and that teams were reportedly "perplexed" by this strategy. The Philadelphia Inquirer later reported that one league executive believes Bailey’s agency prefers for him to “remain on the east coast, playing somewhere between Atlanta and New York.”
Obviously, NBA teams want to get Bailey into their facilities to evaluate him in-person and get to know him on a deeper level. That’s a no-brainer. At the same time, I very much doubt that NBA teams have had their collective minds boggled by a blueprint that a counting list of top prospects has previously tapped into.
The Sixers, actually, had a high-profile case in 2016 with Ben Simmons. The then-LSU prospect didn't work out for anyone and declined working out for the Sixers. At that time, the NBA Draft Combine was optional, so Simmons didn’t make an appearance there either. Even then, Sixers president Bryan Colangelo said that they'd still pick him at No. 1. The Sixers also worked out Brandon Ingram (who in this situation, could “be” VJ Edgecombe) and praised the Duke freshman publicly. Simmons had a brief workout for the Sixers two days before the draft, posted “Trust the process” on Instagram, was told the next day he'd be the No. 1 pick, and then indeed went No. 1.
Sunday just turned into Monday as I publish this, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Bailey worked out for one team before the draft starts on June 25.
He’ll be in New York City, throwing out the first pitch for the New York Mets on June 24. That would presumably make it very easy for the Brooklyn Nets to get him into HSS Training Center.
Looking back to 2016, was Simmons’ predraft process harmed by his strategy? It’s hard to truly say, but it seemingly didn’t harm his perception inside the Sixers organization. That said, the Aussie point forward’s status ahead of the draft was much more of a lock. Klutch Sports was an infinitely more established and powerful agency.
Colangelo said then: "It's not a red flag. Everybody deals with the draft process differently. Sometimes agents are involved. Sometimes families are involved in those decisions. Again, everything we get in respect to our intel that it relates to Ben, is he would very much like to be selected No. 1.”
The Sixers can make a similar calculation and believe that Bailey would rather make ~$9.3 million as a rookie after going No. 3, rather than the ~$8.3 million (No. 4), ~$7.6 million (No. 5), ~6.9 million (No. 6), ~6.3 million (No. 7), ~5.7 million (No. 8) he would otherwise make.
Meanwhile, the player/his representation might agree that going No. 3 will lead to more money in the short-term; however, if Bailey has to play behind Tyrese Maxey, Paul George and Joel Embiid — while having significant questions over whether he can even adapt to the supportive role this would entail — then his second contract might not be maxed out.
Again, though, this is a situation that NBA teams are very familiar with. Here’s Walt Perrin, then the Utah Jazz vice president of player development, in June 2016:
''The agents are holding their players back a little bit more this year, making sure they're in position before they go out for workouts,'' said Jazz vice president of player development Walt Perrin, who did not name players who declined Utah invitations. ''It seems like some of them are being very selective in where they're sending'' guys.
Different agents and players take different approaches to predraft workouts, depending on priorities.
Bailey is represented by the LifeStyle Sports Agency, whose CEO and founder is Omar Cooper. The agency currently works with Cleveland Cavaliers wing Isaac Okoro, who played for McEachern High School (Powder Springs, GA) and the ‘Athletes Of Tomorrow’ AAU team.
Bailey played for those exact teams. The same can be said for Sharife Cooper, the No. 48 pick in the 2021 draft who currently plays for Dijon in the French first division. Sharife is the son of Omar, who founded and previously coached the ‘Athletes Of Tomorrow’ program.
Some agents want their clients selected as high as possible and are focused on the biggest guaranteed paycheck. Others concentrate more on the situation and getting their player in an environment where they can get playing time sooner, and possibly bigger contracts later. Agents have stronger relationships with various team officials, front office executives and coaches and may want to get their client into a specific environment that they believe will best grow and develop talent - regardless if that's the No. 11 pick or No. 16.
Workouts are the only part of the process an agent completely controls - where a player works out and the type of workout. They can try to manipulate, but as the Jazz and other teams have shown: NBA organizations can, and will, choose whoever they feel is the right fit for them.
Arguments can be ‘easily’ made for the team-side and the player-side when it comes to workouts. The latter, I think, is fairly simple to understand. Why should one poor workout or one bad conversation (which, ultimately, depends almost solely on the team) wash away years of scouting and intel-gathering?
Here is former Sacramento Kings assistant general manager Wayne Cooper talking about Tyreke Evans and Steph Curry as it relates to the 2009 NBA Draft:
"Tyreke had size and a hell of a workout. Curry was good, but Tyreke had the better workout that day. You can't predict the future, but at the time Tyreke was a better fit."
Workouts can definitely reduce your draft stock. They can even wipe it completely. On Saturday, Oklahoma’s Jalon Moore tore his Achilles in a predraft workout — his 13th of 16 before the draft, per ESPN’s Jonathan Givony. That’s an absurd toll, and it contradicts what the NBA preaches with regards to overuse.
If league commissioner Adam Silver believes that “some of the injuries that our young players are experiencing are overuse injuries, not because they’re being too physical, but it’s from the repetition of certain things,” then the predraft calendar probably shouldn’t be encouraging (maybe even empowering) a toll such as Moore’s. His agent Mike Silverman said:
"We're truly heartbroken for Jalon. It's time to revamp the NBA pre-draft process. Flying around the country to perform intense competitive workouts exposes players to risk of major injuries. No other pro sports league puts their draft prospects in this position."
Due to all of this, I could also see a predraft scenario this week where Bailey meets with a team but doesn’t work out for them. The Nets are the easiest option if Bailey is already in NYC (and it would make sense for there to be mutual interest), but planes, trains, automobiles, Zoom, and FaceTime also exist for the Sixers, Wizards, etc.
This would be similar to what Ricky Rubio did in 2009:
Rubio has already informed teams that he won't do workouts, but he might visit them to meet the front office and owners. The source said if visits happen, they will be to Los Angeles, Oklahoma City and Sacramento -- owners of the first, third and fourth picks in the draft.
If it comes down to ethics or morality or whatever principles-adjacent word comes to mind, I don’t have a problem with Bailey refusing workouts. There’s nothing wrong with players wanting to play for a certain team. Imagine this scenario:
You go to college for a year and stand out in physics to the point where you’re extremely confident that you’re a very competitive job applicant (maybe you think you’re slightly better than you actually are).
You decide to leave college early to make more money in the “real world” (as for instance, the world’s richest man did).
There are certain companies you’d love to work for. Then, there are other companies that you don’t really see yourself fitting into, be that because you don’t spot a way up the corporate ladder, you don’t like the people running the company, the company’s finances don’t look good, etc. Things that everyday people take into consideration imo, including people working in the NBA and for NBA teams.
Instead, you are informed that, actually, you can only sign a contract with one of 30 different companies unless you want to leave your country, your family, and make a lot less $. By the way, you do not get to choose which of those 30 companies you work for - but they are allowed to choose you even if you don’t want to work for them. You also cannot negotiate how much money you make or pit different contract offers against one another.
Is this not effectively what’s happening?
I think it is — and there’s a greater conversation that should eventually take place — but the NBA Draft also necessitates being realistic and pragmatic.
There’s a decent chance that Bailey’s strategy backfires, especially when taking into account the preexisting questions about his adaptability, buy-in as it regards a less ball-dominant role, and overall feel for the game.
The biggest risk, in my opinion, is if the team that supposedly gave Bailey a promise doesn’t1 draft him.
Maybe that’s because he’s not actually No. 1 on their board, and another prospect remains available. Maybe that’s because they trade their pick, either ‘down’ or entirely. Maybe that’s because they lied (I don’t think the CBA bans this).
If teams see that the 18-year-old starts to slide, it could create a domino effect where everyone starts wondering what the situation is and no one is bold enough to draft him without a previous workout/meeting.
Another big risk is that Bailey’s camp reportedly thinks that the Wizards, Pelicans or Nets “will be aggressive looking to move up in the draft and select him” if he’s not off the board at No. 3 or 4. I doubt that a team would make this assurance, as it would give them no flexibility.
A third risk, which is unlikely, is a team drafting Bailey against his will and the Rutgers prospect subsequently refusing to sign his contract. I do not expect this to happen, although it would be intriguing and something would have to give.
So with mere days to go before the draft, I feel like these are the four likeliest possibilities:
Ace goes No. 3 to the Sixers. Maybe he works out for them before the draft, maybe he doesn’t, but it doesn’t matter either way. Daryl Morey goes with his best prospect available.
The recent buzz checks out, and Ace is drafted by the Wizards, Pelicans, or Nets. That would basically confirm a predraft promise and vindicate Bailey’s strategy. I mocked Ace to the Wizards post-lottery, but my gut tells me the Nets are likeliest. The Sixers probably draft VJ Edgecombe in this scenario, and I think the Hornets and Jazz would select Kon Knueppel and Tre Johnson, respectively.
The Utah Jazz draft Ace at No. 5. He reportedly “doesn't appear to have much interest” in the Jazz, but this seems far from definitive to me. Utah’s CEO of basketball operations Danny Ainge doesn’t mind playing games come draft time.
Ace is punished for wanting to determine where he plays and/or personality concerns. He slides past No. 8, which no one really expects right now. This fall extends into the late lottery (until, say the Atlanta Hawks) or even past it (see: Cam Whitmore, Bol Bol in recent memory).
Curiously, this scenario more or less happened to Rashard Lewis in 1998, an interesting comp for Ace.